Abstract: Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, with low-income countries being disproportionately impacted. However, these countries often face market frictions that hinder their ability to adopt effective adaptation strategies. In this paper, I explore the role of credit market failures in limiting adaptation. To achieve this, I collaborate with a large micro-finance institution and offer a randomly selected group of farmers access to guaranteed credit through an ”Emergency Loan” following a negative climate shock. I document three key results. First, farmers who have access to the emergency loan make less costly adaptation choices and are less severely affected when a flood occurs. Secondly, I find no evidence of adverse spillover effects on households that did not receive the Emergency Loan. Finally, I demonstrate that providing the Emergency Loan is profitable for the micro-finance institution, making it a viable tool for the private sector to employ in similar circumstances.
Econometrica 2024, 92(2)
(with Erin Kelley and David Schönholzer)
Abstract: This paper examines whether moral hazard is a meaningful barrier to firm productivity and growth in low-income countries. We introduce monitoring devices into commuter minibuses in Kenya and randomize which minibus owners have access to the data using a novel mobile app. We find that treated vehicle owners modify the terms of the contract to induce higher effort and lower risk-taking from their drivers, resulting in lower firm costs, higher firm productivity, and firm expansion. These results suggest that moral hazard constrains firm productivity, and the proliferation of monitoring technologies could represent a boon for small firms in low-income countries.
Conditionally Accepted American Economic Review
(with Erin Kelley, Matthew Pecenco, and Edward Rubin)
Abstract: Many workers are evaluated on their ability to engage with customers. We measure the impact of gender-based customer discrimination on the productivity of online sales agents in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a novel framework that randomly varies the gender of names presented to customers without changing worker behavior, we find the assign- ment of a female-sounding name leads to 50 percent fewer purchases. Customers also lag in responding, are less expressive, and avoid discussing purchases. We show similar results for customers around the world and across workers. Removing customer bias, we find women would be more productive than their male co-workers.
Revision Requested Journal of Labor Economics
(with Fiona Burlig, Amir Jina, Erin Kelley, and Harshil Sahai)
Abstract: Climate change is making weather more variable, exacerbating agricultural risk in poor coun- tries. Increasingly, risk-averse farmers are unable to tailor their planting decisions to the coming season, and underinvest in profitable inputs. Accurate, long-range forecasts enable farmers to optimize for the growing season ahead. We experimentally evaluate monsoon onset forecasts in India, randomizing 250 villages into control; a forecast group receiving information well in advance of onset; and an index insurance group which serves as a benchmark. Forecast farmers update their beliefs and their behavior accordingly: farmers who receive “bad news” relative to their priors substantially reduce land under cultivation and certain input expenditures, while those receiving “good news” significantly increase input expenditures. The forecast also changes crop choice, as farmers tailor their investments. These changes in ex ante investments lead to meaningful changes in ex post outcomes. Machine learning-based heterogeneity shows that the least well-off farmers experience the largest increase in agricultural profits from the forecast. In contrast to the forecast, insurance, which provides no information about the coming season, increases investments but does not change crops. Our results demonstrate that forecasts are a promising tool for climate adaptation.
Pre-analysis plan accepted via pre-results review at Journal
of Development Economics
(with Gaurav Chiplunkar and Erin Kelley)
Abstract: We use a randomized control trial to study how young job-seekers share informa- tion about jobs within their social network, and its implications for firms. When competition for a job is made salient, we find that job-seekers are: (i) less likely to share information about the job with their peers; and (ii) choose to share it with fewer higher ability peers. This lowers the size and quality of the applicants a firm sees and the hires they make. These results suggest that firms who rely heavily on social networks to disseminate information about jobs may see lower quality applicants than they expected for positions that are deemed more competitive.
The Value of Safe Driving: Evidence from Kenya’s Public Transport Sector (with Erin Kelley and David Schoenholzer)
Home: Experimental Evidence on Repatriation Preferences of Refugees (with Erin Kelley and Reshmaan Hussam)
Flight Risk or Reward? Returns to Credit Between Refugees and Locals (with Erin Kelley and Reshmaan Hussam)
The Household at Work: A Field Experiment in the Rohingya Refugee Camps (with Erin Kelley and Reshmaan Hussam)
Online Marketplaces and Reducing Barriers for Small Firms (with Erin Kelley, Matthew Pecenco)
(with Gaurav Chiplunkar and Erin Kelley)
Abstract: We rely on real-time data from India’s second
largest job portal to study how COVID-19 (and the associated lockdown
measures) impacted the Indian labor market. Detailed firm-level vacancy
postings on location, industries, occupations and job characteristics
allow us to document three facts that suggest a dramatic contraction in
hiring, especially for young, less-educated and female job-seekers.
First, we observe a substantial decline in the total number of new
vacancies posted and the number of firms that post at least one job.
Second, we see an increase in jobs that can be completed from home and
fewer jobs in occupations that can be easily automated. Finally, we find
evidence that certain job-seekers are more affected than others, as
employers post fewer entry-level jobs, require higher levels of
experience and education, and advertise fewer jobs in female-dominated
occupations.